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November 17, 2016 By Richard Bowen

A Trump Election- A New Direction For the US Economy?

By Transition 2017 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVzJBEYtFKU, CC BY 4.0
Credit: Transition 2017, CC BY 4.0

The jury is out and the predictions from economists are varied. The elections were supposed to reduce the concerns and uncertainty prevalent in our country; they have not. While there is now hope, uncertainty about our economy is stronger than ever. A Trump presidency fundamentally challenges the future of globalization and status quo capitalism.

We may well be in for a volatile time. What happens to our trading partners affects us. The Mexican peso is the lowest it’s been in over 20 years, our trading partners are concerned about our trade agreements with them, and the 4% growth rate he predicted raises eyebrows.

However, Donald Trump has the potential to be a “massive force for good for the economy.” The story of the American economy in the past eight years is one of tension between an aggressive “monetary” policy and a nonexistent “fiscal” policy.

Mr Trump ran on a platform of change which appealed to many Americans… However, while he said ”I alone can fix it,” referring to our country’s woes economically and other, he can decidedly not “fix” it by himself. Elections usually circle back to the economy, wages, jobs, taxes, imports, exports and while new presidents might say one thing in their campaign promises the reality of governing is a whole different matter.

If Congress drags its feet when he presents several of his new proposals, he may well have to follow President Obama’s lead and advance his agenda through executive orders and regulatory policy. Republicans may have just enough of a majority, or not enough

Still, Mr Trump’s election is causing some economists to reassess their economic forecasts with a prediction that real growth, inflation and bond yields could possibly rise faster in coming years.

According to Sean Snaith, Director of the Institute for Economics Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida, the change in administration could  “knock the economy  out of its low-altitude, low growth orbit… however will it put the economy in a higher growth orbit, or will it knock us down into the atmosphere and fiery re-entry?”

The environment our President–elect inherits is a volatile one. There was a strong stock market bubble before he was elected which has gone up even further. We have a debt bubble of over $20 trillion and interest rates that have been too low for too long; just this could torpedo anything he does economically. Some economists are concerned his tax plan alone could increase the deficit even further, some say by $5 trillion.

President Trump begs to differ. He maintains that the economic growth will pay off in the long run. According to his senior policy advisor, Peter Navarro, ”everything that Mr Trump is going to do points in the direction of growth. … The last thing you want to do is raise taxes to fund an infrastructure program…That will not happen in a Trump administration.” 

Trump supporters believe Trump can do all of this in a responsible way.  The first thing Trump mentioned in his victory speech was the spending on infrastructure. “We are going to fix our inner cities, and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals,” he said. “We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.”

The cautious optimism revealed in The Wall Street Journal’s latest monthly survey of economists owes to the belief that the Republican’s proposals to reduce taxes and invest in infrastructure will amount to a substantial fiscal stimulus 

We’ll wait and see. Promises are often made by our politicians and the reality is often a very different one. One area I can very much relate to though is his pledge to slash the regulations that have crippled our community banking system, burdening businesses and job creation. That at the very least is a step in the right direction.

Wishing You and Yours a Joyful and Blessed Thanksgiving
The Whistleblower: David vs Goliath -- You Don’t Have to Be A Giant to Make a Difference

Tagged With: Donald Trump

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Richard Bowen is widely known as the Citigroup whistleblower. As Business Chief Underwriter for Citigroup during the housing bubble financial crisis meltdown, he repeatedly warned Citi executive management and the board about fraudulent behavior within the organization. The company certified poor mortgages as quality mortgages and sold them to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other investors.

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What People Are Saying About Richard M. Bowen

William D. Cohan"Richard Bowen is one of my heroes. His is a story of human fortitude at its best and Wall Street at its worst."

~ William D. Cohan, NY Times Best Selling Author
2017-06-30T10:08:59+00:00
"Richard Bowen is one of my heroes. His is a story of human fortitude at its best and Wall Street at its worst." ~ William D. Cohan, NY Times Best Selling Author
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Eileen McDonnell"Richard Bowen reinforced my motto that "there is no right way to do a wrong thing.” Long after his presentation, the conversation has continued about personal responsibility and the courage to challenge things that appear to be wrong. We encourage this dialog and rely on it to help make our business stronger."

~ Eileen McDonnell, Chairman, CEO, & President, Penn Mutual
2015-02-13T19:51:19+00:00
"Richard Bowen reinforced my motto that "there is no right way to do a wrong thing.” Long after his presentation, the conversation has continued about personal responsibility and the courage to challenge things that appear to be wrong. We encourage this dialog and rely on it to help make our business stronger." ~ Eileen McDonnell, Chairman, CEO, & President, Penn Mutual
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2015-02-13T19:50:26+00:00
"Richard Bowen, you are a star and a hero." ~ Ben Stein, Economist and Political Commentator
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Jim Farrell"Richard's speech at the April Financial Executives International dinner was informative, interesting, riveting, and fast moving.  The feedback from members was overwhelming positive, and Richard received one of the few standing ovations given by our membership."

~ Jim Farrell, Program Chairman, Dallas Chapter, Financial Executives International
2014-12-28T19:48:17+00:00
"Richard's speech at the April Financial Executives International dinner was informative, interesting, riveting, and fast moving.  The feedback from members was overwhelming positive, and Richard received one of the few standing ovations given by our membership." ~ Jim Farrell, Program Chairman, Dallas Chapter, Financial Executives International
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Dennis McCuistion"Richard Bowen has been there, done that, and has the scars to prove it, and his message of corruption at the highest levels of industry and government needs to be heard. I only wish that more bankers had the courage that Bowen exhibits. He is not only one of the most talented bankers I have ever met, he has more integrity than all the bankers on Wall Street put together. If his former employer had listened to him taxpayers would not have had to bail out Citi for the third time in the last 30 years."

~ Dennis McCuistion, Host of the McCuistion TV program
2014-12-28T19:48:06+00:00
"Richard Bowen has been there, done that, and has the scars to prove it, and his message of corruption at the highest levels of industry and government needs to be heard. I only wish that more bankers had the courage that Bowen exhibits. He is not only one of the most talented bankers I have ever met, he has more integrity than all the bankers on Wall Street put together. If his former employer had listened to him taxpayers would not have had to bail out Citi for the third time in the last 30 years." ~ Dennis McCuistion, Host of the McCuistion TV program
https://www.richardmbowen.com/testimonials/533/

Betty Garrett"Richard Bowen is a dynamic, entertaining speaker and story-teller - a CPA with a great personality!"

~ Betty Garrett, Garrett Speakers International
2014-12-28T19:47:50+00:00
"Richard Bowen is a dynamic, entertaining speaker and story-teller - a CPA with a great personality!" ~ Betty Garrett, Garrett Speakers International
https://www.richardmbowen.com/testimonials/531/

fred-timmons"I believe Richard Bowen is the only keynote speaker to ever receive a standing ovation from the Texas Society of CPA’s at any of its annual conferences."

~ Fred Timmons, Chairman of The Texas Society of CPA's
2014-12-28T19:47:22+00:00
"I believe Richard Bowen is the only keynote speaker to ever receive a standing ovation from the Texas Society of CPA’s at any of its annual conferences." ~ Fred Timmons, Chairman of The Texas Society of CPA's
https://www.richardmbowen.com/testimonials/530/

Presentation Topics

Playing for High Stakes: The Principles and Practice of Ethical Leadership

Dark Citi: The Story of a Whistleblower

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Now an ethical leadership speaker, Richard Bowen was Citigroup's Business Chief Underwriter during the housing bubble.

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